Musk Targets 5 Million Tesla Deliveries by 2030, Down From Earlier Goal

Elon Musk said Tesla is aiming to deliver 5 million vehicles a year by about 2030, calling the target achievable. The statement came during the company’s earnings call, and is a lower target than the 20 million cars a year he predicted in 2020.

Tesla’s annual deliveries peaked at 1,808,581 in 2023, then fell to 1,789,226 in 2024 and 1,636,129 in 2025. The source says Tesla had delivered 1,324,681 vehicles so far in the current year and would need another 311,448 in the fourth quarter to avoid a third consecutive annual decline. Analysts cited in the source forecast 1.82 million deliveries for the full year.

Reaching 5 million annually by 2030 would require a 25 percent compound annual growth rate, according to the source’s calculation. Tesla executives have pointed to the Cybercab and Robotaxi fleet as part of the company’s shift toward AI and robotics. Tesla’s VP for Autonomy, Ashok Elluswamy, claimed unsupervised Full Self-Driving could launch in the second quarter of 2027. VP for Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy said Tesla would try to deliver the first steering-wheel- and pedal-less Cybercabs to customers before the end of the year.

The source notes that more than 96 percent of Tesla sales depend on the Model 3 and Model Y. It also identifies the Semi as a possible source of additional commercial sales, while describing the Cybertruck as having missed its initial targets by a wide margin.