An AI Bubble Could Burst Without Killing ChatGPT

Warnings about a possible AI bubble are growing harder to ignore. Investors have put large sums into AI companies, betting the technology will eventually deliver returns to match. But questions remain about whether those returns will come quickly enough to justify the spending.

The Financial Times recently reported that OpenAI, which makes ChatGPT, expects almost $280 billion in negative free cash flow through 2030. That figure illustrates concerns that investment and company valuations have run ahead of what AI can earn today. If investor confidence falls, funding could dry up, some AI companies could fail, and the industry could spend less.

That would not make AI disappear, but it could change how services such as ChatGPT are funded and used. TechRadar’s Becca Caddy points to several possible changes. OpenAI says ChatGPT Ads reached a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate in less than 200 days, and the company describes advertising as a key part of its business model. Less funding could increase the incentive to earn more from users, including through ads, referrals, sponsored experiences, or shopping features.

Subscriptions could also cost more, or more advanced models, agents, research tools, integrations, and new features could be reserved for paying users. Free users might face tighter limits on messages, image and video generation, queues, or other computing-intensive features.

OpenAI says ChatGPT has more than one billion weekly active users and earns revenue from subscriptions, advertising, enterprise customers, and its API. Caddy argues that this makes ChatGPT unlikely to simply vanish, though smaller AI companies and apps could fail or be acquired. For users, change might arrive gradually through more ads, stricter free limits, and paid access to features they want.