Budget smartphones could shrink by 40% by 2030

Smartphones priced below $200 could lose 40% of their market by 2030, a forecast from Counterpoint Research says. That would mean 230 million fewer devices in the segment, as rising costs for memory, processors and system-on-chips put pressure on manufacturers.

The forecast comes amid growing demand for chips from AI data centers and higher component costs across the electronics industry. Counterpoint expects the overall smartphone market to regain its 2025 volume by 2030, but says the affordable segment will not return to its former position.

Yang Wang, a principal analyst at Counterpoint Research, said the market would be similar in size overall but different in value. He said demand could shift toward better-specced mainstream phones and premium products, though higher-priced models would not make up for all the lost budget-phone sales.

The changes could lead consumers to keep phones longer and extend replacement cycles. The refurbished-phone market and supplies of older models could benefit, the report suggests. Wang also warned that fewer affordable new phones could make it harder for first-time users in lower-income markets to get online. Counterpoint's forecast does not predict budget phones will disappear entirely.