Former Obama official outlines extreme responses if China develops AGI

Jacob Stokes, a former national security official in the Obama administration, argues in a document titled Superpowers and AGI that the United States should prepare for a scenario in which China develops artificial general intelligence (AGI) first.

AGI is a theoretical stage of AI development in which an AI system matches or exceeds human reasoning and intelligence. Stokes says a US response could include physical infiltration, offensive cyber operations to sabotage China’s AGI systems, and kinetic attacks involving missiles and bombs.

He describes cyberattacks as a possible way to sabotage AGI without provoking large-scale retaliation, while calling kinetic attacks the most dangerous option and the one carrying the greatest escalation risk. The report acknowledges that bombing Chinese data centers could amount to a declaration of war and trigger retaliatory action.

Stokes also warns that a surprise technological breakthrough could allow China to develop AGI for offensive cyber tools, or cyber weapons. His report treats AGI as inevitable and argues that the US should do whatever is necessary to prevent China from developing it first. The source questions whether either country could be trusted with AGI, how its development could be verified, and whether attacks could be justified as self-preservation.