NAND Flash supply growth expected to outpace demand in 2027

TrendForce says the NAND Flash market has remained undersupplied throughout 2026 as AI-related demand rises while capacity expansion stays limited. The company expects supply constraints to ease in the second half of 2027.

Suppliers are expected to rely on process migrations and upgrades to existing production lines. Chinese manufacturers may add substantial capacity as new equipment comes online, raising their share of global NAND Flash bit output to nearly 19%.

Shipments of Intel's and AMD's next-generation server platforms are expected to accelerate in the second half of 2026, driving full-year server shipments up 17% year over year. In 2027, Agentic AI applications and improved component availability are expected to support further server growth.

Consumer demand remains weaker. TrendForce forecasts global smartphone production will fall 15–20% year over year in 2026, while notebook shipments are expected to decline by around 10%. Servers account for more than 40% of NAND Flash bit demand, but smartphones and notebooks together still represent nearly 40%. TrendForce estimates a 4–5% supply deficit in 2026 before the balance turns positive in the second half of 2027.